Outlook for 27th April - 1st May 2015

AUDUSD

Monthly trend: DOWN

Weekly trend: DOWN
Daily momentum: NEUTRAL

Short term rally on the daily chart is pushing price closer to 0.7890 resistance. RBA interest rate decision in 2 weeks could be the deciding factor for traders looking to take advantage of a low risk high reward short trade. I am also looking for opportunities to short at resistance for the very same reason.

AUDNZD

Monthly trend: DOWN
Weekly trend: DOWN
Daily momentum: NEUTRAL

On daily chart this pair is testing both 1.0320 horizontal resistance and down trend resistance. I will be watching closely on smaller time frames to sell if there is confirmation of selling from price action.

EURUSD

Monthly trend: DOWN
Weekly trend: DOWN
Daily momentum: NEUTRAL

I'm waiting to see if this short term rally bring price to 1.1060 resistance for chances to go short but for now there's no trading opportunity here.

EURNZD

Monthly trend: DOWN
Weekly trend: DOWN
Daily momentum: UP

The remainder 40% of my short position from last week was closed out at 1.3914 for +329 pips. Looking back now it seems like a brilliant decision but the truth is that I didn't intend to exit here. When I originally entered the trade, I randomly put in 330 pips for target profit and then set my 1st target using a limit order. The plan was that after TP1 was hit, stop would be trailed to follow price down and the original target would be moved out even further. Well, I forgot to move it and so it was hit. I consider myself very lucky because my trading partner who took the exact same trade was stopped out when price rallied quickly because he was actually following the trading plan better than I did.

Trade summary:

TP1: +93 pips, closed out 60% for 0.85 RR
TP2: +329 pips, closed out 40% for 3.00 RR

Final RR for the entire trade is 1.71 which I am very happy with given that it was due to luck that I got out with massive profits on the last 40% of my position.




GBPUSD

Monthly trend: DOWN
Weekly trend: DOWN
Daily momentum: UP

Last week I talked about a short trade on daily chart with entry at 1.4905 . The trade was triggered on Monday and I was stopped out on Wednesday. Nothing much to discuss here because the trade was executed exactly as planned. I was simple wrong on my theory that price would reverse if it breaks below 1.4905 .

This pair is showing a strong rally in the short term. What do I do when I see a clear trend? I find low risk high reward opportunities to get on board. I can see minor resistance at 1.5230 and next level up is 1.5500 . I am looking to go long if price retraces back down to support zone at 1.4975 - 1.5000 area.

GBPJPY

Monthly trend: UP
Weekly trend: DOWN
Daily momentum: UP

This pair is approaching trend line resistance on the weekly chart. I will wait for 1 more week to see how this potential short setup unfolds.

USDJPY

Monthly trend: NEUTRAL
Weekly trend: NEUTRAL
Daily momentum: NEUTRAL

Price has been going sideways since February, trapped between 121.60 resistance and 118.50 support. I am looking for opportunities to go long on the smaller time frames if price gets to 118.50 - 118.80 support zone.