Fundamental Analysis

Dear everyone,

Since the change over to videos from written text, the time taken to do my weekly report has increased therefore I will discontinue the monthly fundamental analysis reports for the time being. I will definitely consider ways to bring it back once I get more proficient at producing the videos.

Regards,

Viet

Weekly Outlook 31 May 2015

Weekly Forex outlook 24 May 2015

Weekly Forex Outlook 17 May 2015

This week's report is a video!

Weekly outlook for 11th - 15th May 2015

This week has been quite eventful with RBA's decision to cut interest rate by 0.25% on Tuesday, the UK general election on Thursday and USA's non farm employment change (NFP) on Friday. As the result, price action has been very messy for many pairs. GBP pairs in particular have seen gaps during election day.


AUDUSD

The remainder of my short was taken out when news of interest rate came out. My stop at the time was at 0.7910

Trade summary:

TP1: +130 pips, exit 60%
TP2: +40 pips (trailing stop hit), exit 40%

Final RR for the trade is 0.75

AUDNZD

The daily uptrend continues from 2 weeks ago. Overhead resistance is at  1.0770 and support is at 1.0540 . If price retraces back down to support then I will be looking for opportunities to go long on the smaller time frames.

Weekly outlook for 4th - 8th May 2015

GBPUSD

Last week I mentioned that I was looking for opportunities on the smaller time frames to go long with the short term uptrend on the daily. I waited until the market showed me the right setup. It was simply a break of resistance. Target was set at 3:1 RR because I wanted to ride the trend as close as possible to 1.5460 resistance.

Entry @ 1.5192
Stop @ 1.5105 (-87 pips)
Target @ 1.5450 (+258 pips) closed all positions

Final RR for the trade is 2.97:1

AUDUSD

The daily rally had no trouble breaking 0.7890 resistance and got all the way up to 0.8000 resistance where a short setup formed on the daily chart.

Entry @ 0.7950
Stop @ 0.8075 (-125 pips)
TP1 @ 0.7820 (+130 pips) hit, exited 60% for 1:1 RR

Stop has been moved to 0.7910 to follow price down if it turns out that way.

Interestingly, I also took a long trade on this pair on 4 hour when I saw signs of a potential reversal at 0.7890 support. I was notified of the trade after it has triggered but being the greedy trader that I am, I entered long using an appropriate risk profile and trading plan. As it turned out, the market didn't let me have my cake and eat it too. Fortunately, my risk management came to the rescue and I walked away losing only a tiny fraction of what I had risked.

Entry @ 0.7900
Stop @ 0.7862 (-38 pips) manual exit for -7 pips
Target @ 0.7930 (+30 pips)

Final RR for the trade is -0.18:1

EURAUD

If price reaches 1.4410 resistance then I will be looking for opportunities to short.

EURCAD

This pair has enjoyed a strong rally on daily chart and if it continues to 1.3760 where strong resistance awaits then I will be looking to short.

EURUSD

The Euro had seen good buying this week and this pair has broken above 1.1060 resistance. Right now there's a short setup on the daily chart but knowing that next week is Non-Farm Employment Change (aka NFP) I would have to see how the next candle would close to give me a better indication on how to manage risk.

GBPAUD

This pair continues to trade within the funnel. Next week is the UK general election so I would expect this holding pattern to continue until the election results are out.

GBPJPY

There was a false break outside of the weekly descending triangle pattern but price closed the week inside the top line of the pattern. This pattern suggests a break of 175.50 is the more likely scenario so I will continue to stand aside and wait for more confirmation.