Weekly Forex outlook 31 July 2016

My July interviews on Tip TV is now available for viewing. Here are the links to Part 1 and Part 2.

These are the currency pairs that I am watching next week for trading opportunities:

AUDJPY – Price came down to test 77.60 support on Friday and it finished right on top of it. If I can see a transition of control from sellers to buyers, together with strong sign of buying above support then I will be going long. I will be extra cautious because of interest rate decision for Australia on Tuesday.

AUDNZD – Friday saw a break below resistance at 1.0560 and price closed below it as well. My trading plan is telling me that support has been broken and I should be looking for opportunities to sell. If there is a retrace back to 1.0560 area then I will be looking for opportunities to short on multiple time frames. Just like AUDJPY above, the risk is high due to interest rate decision for AUD.

USDCAD – Last Sunday I mentioned possible short opportunity if this pair continues up to test 1.3280 resistance. The turnaround did happen but not in any suitable trading setup according to my plan so no trade was taken. On the positive side, price action during the week confirmed that 1.3190 (dotted line from last week’s chart) is not a valid resistance that I can trade from. I will remove this level from my chart on Monday.

NZDJPY – This pair got very close to 73.00 support level on Friday. This is a strong support level in my analysis. If price continues to drop to hit this level then I will be looking for low risk high reward opportunities to go long above support if I can see evidence of strong buying power above it.

Weekly Forex outlook 24 July 2016

It has been another week of patiently sitting on my hands. Market conditions are still hostile towards my trading style so I am happy to wait. On Thursday there was almost a trade for me on AUDNZD H8 when price tested 1.0730 for the second time. My intended target of 2R is just out of reach by a few pips but rules are rules so no trade was taken.

These are the currency pairs that I am watching next week for trading opportunities:

USDCAD – This pair is approaching 1.3280 resistance. On my chart I have also marked in 1.3190 as a possible new resistance level. I will see how price reacts to this level in the next few days. As it stands, I am only interested in 1.3280 as the level to trade from. If price reaches that level then I would be looking for signs of sellers in control below resistance to enter short.

USDJPY – Price broke above 105.50 resistance last week, came back down to test it and for now it appears to be acting as support. I was monitoring this pair on multiple intraday time frames as it came back down to test 105.50 but did not see anything that meets my trading criteria. Going into next week, I will be watching this pair on the daily chart only for sign of strong buying power above support in order to go long.

My second year as a proprietary trader

Today I have signed my second year contract to continue prop trading for Axis Partners Ltd. I have received more trading capital and I am allowed to trade bigger position size. Therefore, in order to accurately track my performance, I have deposited more money into the PAMM Growth account (cTrader 1009561).

Effective today, trading capital on the account has been increased by 66%. Standard risk per trade is now 0.50% with an upper limit of 0.75%. There is no change to my methodology, risk management or trading plan.

As the result of this increase, myfxbook will report different figures for Gain and Absolute Gain. It is the Gain that will truly reflect performance because it compensates for external flow such as deposits and withdrawals. Myfxbook uses Time Weighted Rate of Return (TWRR) to accurately reflect the change. I will also do the calculations on my own to make sure that myfxbook is correct.

Weekly Forex outlook 16 July 2016

Although it has been 3 weeks since Brexit, I am still adopting extra caution because price action is currently not favourable to how I trade. Some currency pairs are at levels not seen for over 10 years. This means that the support and resistance levels that I identify using my methodology are less reliable. I would need to confirm their validity with recent price action.

My trend following system was put on standby before Brexit when volatility pushed the overall account exposure over the limit that I set for it. Now I am simply waiting for volatility to stabilise and will resume trading as soon as exposure drops below the limit. Risk management is the name of my game and I take no chances when it comes to overall system risk and exposure.

Going into next week, I will be watching NZDJPY because this pair finished the week right above 74.50 support. I am going to look for signs of strong buying power above support to enter long. This could be a high risk trade since Monday is bank holiday for JPY and Tuesday has GDT Price Index for NZD.

June 2016 performance summary

Here are my performances across the 3 accounts for June 2016. Account statements and performance summary pages have been updated.

+1.59% on Trend Following account
+0.77% on PAMM Growth account
-1.35% on High Risk account

My Trend Following account has enjoyed a strong 1st half of this year as increases in volatility drive trends. It registered positive gains for 5 out of 6 months so far this year. July 21st will be its 1st year anniversary. I will do a more in-depth review of this account after this date.

The Growth account had only 1 winning trade in June yet it has gained back all losses in the last 6 trades with extra profits on top. I know that my methodology has positive expectancy so I just keep at it no matter what. I'm happy to take losses and I work hard to keep them small. When the time is right, profits from one winner will more than make up for several losses.

The High Risk account is into its last month under my management. I will finish with it on August 1st. At the moment, it is at +115% and will very likely to finish around there. I will be paid a percentage of total profits. If my client would like to continue with my services then I would provide an update on this.