This is my last week of trading before going to Perth
(Australia) to visit my family for 2 months. I have some packing to do so
making a video this weekend is not possible. I will resume trading from March 7th.
This week has been all about controlling losses. There were 2 trades were taken
on the PAMM account: AUDJPY 4 hour short at 82 resistance and EURAUD 4 hour
short at 1.5590 resistance. I will discuss them in the analysis below along
with my watch list.
AUDJPY – Resistance at 82 was tested twice this week. First
time was on Tuesday and this was my trade on 4 hour time frame. This is a
standard reversal setup which started off very well. Price got close to my
target at 80.05 before turning around to hit the trailing stop for +0.6R gain. It
came back to retest resistance and sellers pushed it down again on Thursday. Unfortunately
there was no trade on the second setup because it did not meet my criteria. Next
week, I will be looking for opportunities to buy if price gets to 79.30
support.
AUDNZD – After breaking above 1.0730 support, price came
back down to test it on Friday. On the 4 hour chart, I can see early sign of
strong buying power at support. There was no trade taken because the setup
formed outside of my allowable trading time window. The weekend (time) gap is
too risky to justify entering a trade on Monday’s open. I am going to wait
until end of Monday to review this long opportunity again.
AUDUSD – On daily chart, sellers are very strong above
0.7160 resistance. In the last 2 weeks, every time a daily candle closes above
this level, sellers immediately step in the following day. Buyers are strong
below 0.7020 support and this is suggesting a breakout when one side finally
overpowers the other. Which side would it be? Let’s wait and find out. Price
action favours buyers slightly more than sellers in my view.
EURAUD on 4 hour chart was my second trade of the week. It
was taken after a break of 1.5590 support and then price pulled back to retest
it. My entry was 1.5510 and exit signal was triggered in the following candle.
Trade was closed out for -0.42R loss. It’s always a triumph for me to see
losses being kept small. Despite having a small win and a loss, I am actually
up +0.2R for the week. You will notice that I quote my performance in terms of
risk (R) rather than pips. There’s a reason why it’s called risk management and
not pip management.
EURJPY – On daily chart, there is an old support level at
124.80 not far from Friday’s close. Since price has not been in this price
range for a long time, I will be extra cautious when it comes to taking trades.
Ideally, I will wait for 2-3 weeks for price action to show me where the
support level is.
EURUSD – Daily chart shows a great long setup after price
has finished the week right on my support level at 1.1100 . Reward risk ratio
is not a problem when my next resistance level is at 1.1480 . I am going to
wait for Monday’s daily candle to close before formulating my trading plan. I
want to see daily close above 1.1160 at the very minimum.
Last but not least is NZDJPY. In my video last week, I said
that support at 74.50 is very strong and once again this has been the case.
Sellers were in control of price on Thursday and Friday but still cannot make a
daily close below this level. On 4 hour chart, late Friday afternoon shows a
possible sign of a reversal but again this was outside of my trading time. If
Monday’s daily candle can close above 74.03 then I will begin to look for
setups to go long from here.
