Weekly Forex outlook 13 Dec 2015

Hi everyone,

This is the last analysis video for this year. You'll find analysis for AUDNZD, EURAUD, EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDJPY. I also discussed 2 of my winning trades as well as the cost of my lack of discipline towards the end of the trading week.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year 2016!

Weekly Forex outlook 6 December 2015

As requested by some viewers, in this video I show a step by step example of how I would have traded a short opportunity on GBPAUD during my time off. I also discuss my plans of action going into next week for AUDJPY, AUDNZD, EURAUD, EURUSD and NZDJPY.

Weekly Forex outlook 16 November 2015

Hi everyone,



I am not trading this week and will be on leave for 2 weeks. However, old habits die hard. I'm used to doing my weekly analysis anyway. Here's an unscripted video showing you my analysis for this week. Take care and I will see you when I return.

Weekly Forex outlook 8 November 2015

In this video, I discussed 2 of my trades on AUDUSD and GPBAUD as well as my view on possible trading opportunities on AUDNZD, GBPJPY, GBPUSD and USDCAD.

Weekly Forex outlook 1 November 2015

Hi everyone,

I’ve been unwell for the last few days and unable to do the weekly video. It's now Monday evening and I'm not going to get better so here’s the script for the video that I intended to do:

AUDJPY daily chart– 86.40 support level has been tested many times in the last few weeks and was broken on Wednesday when a daily candle closed below it. I am watching for a retest of this level for opportunities to short while keeping in mind that I must wait after Tuesday to trade because of interest rate decision for AUD.

AUDNZD daily chart – My short from 2 weeks ago hit its target on Friday for +180 pips or +1.8R gain. I have support at 1.0500 which price got to on Friday. I favour a long trade at support if price action shows signs of strong buying. A daily close below this level would have me a short trade instead, with target at 1.0350 support.

AUDUSD daily chart  – This pair is showing conflicting signals for me. On one hand, price has broken 0.7220 support and sellers were strong towards the end of the week. On the other hand, I see a pattern of higher high and possibly higher low if price does not reach 0.7000 . I am going to stand aside for now until Wednesday and review this pair again. The ideal scenario that I would want to be trading is price comes up to 0.7720 resistance and I see strong signs of sellers in control.

GBPAUD daily chart – Price closed well above 2.1420 resistance on Thursday so this level has now turn into support for me. I will look to buy on a pullback to support if price action shows signs of strong buying power. Again, interest rate decision for Australia on Tuesday is the event that I will wait out before entering trades.

USDCAD daily chart – This pair finished the week right on top of my support level at 1.3050 so I will be looking to go long from here. Monday’s candle is not enough for me to enter the trade. I want to see strong buying power from Monday and Tuesday before considering options to go long.

USDJPY daily chart – The market showed typical reactionary behaviour after FOMC and price action has been very messy towards the end of last week. Support at 120.40 is still in play so I will wait for Monday’s candle to close before deciding if there is an opportunity to go long at support or not.

Last pair on the list is NZDJPY. There was a potential long trade at 80.70 support after Thursday’s daily candle closed as indecision. However the setup did not meet all of my entry criteria so it was not taken. Friday’s candle showed that buyers were very strong so perhaps another missed opportunities but my trading rules are meant to keep me safe and the price I pay for that is reduced potential profits.

The most important event on the calendar next week for me to avoid is interest rate decision for Australia on early Tuesday morning. As I have got quite a few AUD pairs on my watchlist, I am going to wait for Tuesday to pass before considering any trade. Thursday has interest rate decision for the UK and Friday is non-farm payroll which is the star of the show. It's shaping up to be a volatile week to kick off November.

Weekly Forex outlook 25 Oct 2015

It has been a week that can make or break a trader. In this video, I showed you a real life example where fear of losing had lead me away from a profitable trade.  Analysis includes EURAUD, EURJPY, EURNZD and USDJPY.

Weekly Forex outlook 18 Oct 2015

In this week's video, I talked about 2 trades that came out of last week's analysis as well as my views on AUDJPY, GBPAUD, USDCAD and NZDJPY. It's also the first time that my currency exposure limit (risk management rule) came into effect and I had to decided which setup to exclude.

Questions and Answers

Here are my answers to some of the most commonly asked questions about my trading. Links to my trading accounts are on top of the blog.

Weekly Forex outlook 11 Oct 2015

This week's video covers 2 of my trades as well as 10 pairs to watch for next week:

AUDJPY
AUDUSD
EURAUD
EURJPY
EURUSD
GBPAUD
GBPJPY
USDCAD
NZDUSD
NZDJPY

Weekly Forex outlook 4 Oct 2015

In this video I talked about my decision for taking only 1 out of 2 valid setups during the week as well as my views on AUDNZD, EURUSD, GBPAUD, GBPJPY, USDCAD and NZDUSD.

Weekly Forex outlook 20 September 2015

This week's video is shorter than usual due to limited time. I followed up on the 3 pairs from last week: AUDJPY, AUDNZD and AUDUSD.

Weekly Forex outlook 13 September 2015

This week's video covers my trading plan leading up to Federal Reserve interest rate decision on Thursday as well as AUDJPY, AUDNZD, AUDUSD and EURJPY.

Weekly Forex outlook 6 September 2015

Market has produced some big moves in the last 2 weeks. In this video, I talked about my plan to find and validate support resistance for pairs that moved into price areas that they have not been to for several years. I also talked about my views on AUDJPY, AUDUSD, EURJPY, EURUSD, GBPJPY, GBPUSD and USDJPY.

Update 29 Aug 2015

There is no weekly outlook video this Sunday because charts are a bit of a messy after the events of last Monday. Next week there is UK bank holiday on Monday and non farm payroll for USA on Friday so I anticipate limited trading opportunities as the market settles down and position itself for next month.

Weekly Forex outlook 23 August 2015

In this video, I follow up on EURCAD and EURNZD opportunities mentioned last Sunday. I give updates on AUDJPY, AUDNZD, EURJPY, EURUSD and USDJPY. I also share with you an example of how the market punishes laziness in trading.

Weekly Forex outlook 16 August 2015

In this video, I'll show you what I am looking for in AUDNZD, EURCAD, EURJPY and GBPUSD for next week. At the end of the video I also talk briefly about the reality of trading from my own experience.

Weekly Forex outlook 9 August 2015

In this week's video, I talked about 2  price action reversal trades on AUDNZD and EURAUD. I also discussed trading opportunities for AUDUSD, EURCAD, EURNZD and GPBAUD for next week.

Weekly forex outlook 26 July 2015

In this video, I talked about 2 trades that I closed on Friday as well as my analysis for AUDUSD, EURNZD, EURUSD and USDCAD for next week. There's a quick scan of the news calendar for next week and I finish the video with discussion about the live accounts that I have made public on my blog.

New account added: High risk (Discretionary)

Good Friday everyone,

I have added myfxbook link to a 3rd trading account that I have. This account is for trades that do not meet all the requirements that I look for. I think of it as a way for me to release my trading urges and temptations. Trading requires a high level of discipline everyday therefore it 'feels' good to turn it down a bit at certain times.

I still use proper risk and money management for all of the trades taken on this account. There is a difference between the gain and abs gain because of deposits and withdrawals. This account is traded on MT5 therefore it couldn't be 100% verified by myfxbook. I will be discussing some trades taken on the high risk account if it falls under price action. I primarily trade price action but I do follow Elliot Wave Theory and take trades based on its principles.

Have a great weekend everyone.

Viet

Automated Trading System

Hi everyone,

I have added a second account dedicated to track performance of a simple trading system that I have been working on. The system is based entirely on price action and support resistance. It performed as expected using 4 years of out-of-sample data on 10 currency pairs so the next step is to forward test with real money.

Why do I do this with real money? Because only real performance with real money counts. Back testing and demo trading mean absolutely nothing. Only one thing matters in the space of professional trading: risk-adjusted performance. I inspire to become a fund manager therefore I will take the path that is required of me.

This account is completely automated and will be active 365 days a year. It has built-in risk management protocol to withstand volatility from most economic news. The aim of this account is to prove that the system is robust. Testing period will be 2 years. Expected annualized return of the system is 8% with standard deviation of 2.4%. Expected maximum draw down is 15% with standard deviation of 5.3%.

I would like to thank Adrian F. , Daniel S. , Mark M. and Richard D. for their contributions and feedback to the system. A special thank to Rene H. for his endless hours of coding and troubleshooting with me. Thank you all once again.

Regards,

Viet

Weekly Forex outlook 19 July 2015

Hi everyone,

I have been occupied with other forex projects this week and unfortunately I do not have time to make a weekly video.

Going into next week, I am looking for a pullback on USDCAD to 1.2800 level to enter long. With EURUSD, a daily close below 1.0820 would tell me that the recent (weak) uptrend since April of this year is over with a formation of a lower high on 17/6/2015 and lower low.

Regards,

Viet

Weekly Forex outlook 12 July 2015

In this week's video, I discussed my trade on AUDJPY as well as analysis for AUDUSD, AUDNZD, GBPAUD and GBPUSD.

Weekly Forex outlook 28 June 2015

In this week's video, I talked about trades on NZDUSD and USDJPY. My analysis for next week covers AUDCAD, AUDJPY and GBPAUD.

Processing error in Sunday's video

Hi everyone,

I have been advised of a glitch in Sunday's video at 6:06 where I was talking about AUDNZD. A part of the video was skipped and it moved right to NZDUSD. I will upload the missing section as soon as I can.

Regards,

Viet

** UPDATE **

I was not able to recover the skipped part from the old video so here is the most recent analysis for AUDNZD and NZDUSD. One of my anticipated trades have been triggered.

Performance Tracking

Hi everyone,

I have created a live account to track the trades that I discuss in my weekly videos. You can find a summary of the account on the top of the blog page. Clicking the banner would bring you to myfxbook where you can access more statistics about the performance of the account.

My goal is to achieve 10% gain in the first year while keeping maximum draw down below 3.5% . I will be making regular capital contributions to the account so there will be a difference between the GAIN and ABS. GAIN. Hover your mouse over each heading to see the explanations from myfxbook.

Regards,

Viet

Weekly Forex outlook Sunday 21 June 2015

This week's report include my analysis on the follow currency pairs:

GBPAUD
GBPJPY
GBPUSD
AUDNZD
NZDUSD

Weekly Forex outlook 14 June 2015

This week's report include my analysis on the follow currency pairs:



AUDNZD
EURCAD
GBPJPY

NZDUSD

Weekly Forex outlook 7 June 2015 part 2

Please find analysis for AUDCAD and AUDUSD which were missing from yesterday's video.

Weekly forex outlook 7 June 2015

This week's report include my analysis on the follow currency pairs:

AUDCAD

AUDUSD

EURCAD

EURUSD
USDJPY

Details of my NZDUSD 4 hour short trade: 

Entry @ 0.7165

Stop @ 0.7210 (-45 pips)

TP1 @ 0.7075 (+90 pips) exit 75% for 2R

Stop will trail

Fundamental Analysis

Dear everyone,

Since the change over to videos from written text, the time taken to do my weekly report has increased therefore I will discontinue the monthly fundamental analysis reports for the time being. I will definitely consider ways to bring it back once I get more proficient at producing the videos.

Regards,

Viet

Weekly Outlook 31 May 2015

Weekly Forex outlook 24 May 2015

Weekly Forex Outlook 17 May 2015

This week's report is a video!

Weekly outlook for 11th - 15th May 2015

This week has been quite eventful with RBA's decision to cut interest rate by 0.25% on Tuesday, the UK general election on Thursday and USA's non farm employment change (NFP) on Friday. As the result, price action has been very messy for many pairs. GBP pairs in particular have seen gaps during election day.


AUDUSD

The remainder of my short was taken out when news of interest rate came out. My stop at the time was at 0.7910

Trade summary:

TP1: +130 pips, exit 60%
TP2: +40 pips (trailing stop hit), exit 40%

Final RR for the trade is 0.75

AUDNZD

The daily uptrend continues from 2 weeks ago. Overhead resistance is at  1.0770 and support is at 1.0540 . If price retraces back down to support then I will be looking for opportunities to go long on the smaller time frames.

Weekly outlook for 4th - 8th May 2015

GBPUSD

Last week I mentioned that I was looking for opportunities on the smaller time frames to go long with the short term uptrend on the daily. I waited until the market showed me the right setup. It was simply a break of resistance. Target was set at 3:1 RR because I wanted to ride the trend as close as possible to 1.5460 resistance.

Entry @ 1.5192
Stop @ 1.5105 (-87 pips)
Target @ 1.5450 (+258 pips) closed all positions

Final RR for the trade is 2.97:1

AUDUSD

The daily rally had no trouble breaking 0.7890 resistance and got all the way up to 0.8000 resistance where a short setup formed on the daily chart.

Entry @ 0.7950
Stop @ 0.8075 (-125 pips)
TP1 @ 0.7820 (+130 pips) hit, exited 60% for 1:1 RR

Stop has been moved to 0.7910 to follow price down if it turns out that way.

Interestingly, I also took a long trade on this pair on 4 hour when I saw signs of a potential reversal at 0.7890 support. I was notified of the trade after it has triggered but being the greedy trader that I am, I entered long using an appropriate risk profile and trading plan. As it turned out, the market didn't let me have my cake and eat it too. Fortunately, my risk management came to the rescue and I walked away losing only a tiny fraction of what I had risked.

Entry @ 0.7900
Stop @ 0.7862 (-38 pips) manual exit for -7 pips
Target @ 0.7930 (+30 pips)

Final RR for the trade is -0.18:1

EURAUD

If price reaches 1.4410 resistance then I will be looking for opportunities to short.

EURCAD

This pair has enjoyed a strong rally on daily chart and if it continues to 1.3760 where strong resistance awaits then I will be looking to short.

EURUSD

The Euro had seen good buying this week and this pair has broken above 1.1060 resistance. Right now there's a short setup on the daily chart but knowing that next week is Non-Farm Employment Change (aka NFP) I would have to see how the next candle would close to give me a better indication on how to manage risk.

GBPAUD

This pair continues to trade within the funnel. Next week is the UK general election so I would expect this holding pattern to continue until the election results are out.

GBPJPY

There was a false break outside of the weekly descending triangle pattern but price closed the week inside the top line of the pattern. This pattern suggests a break of 175.50 is the more likely scenario so I will continue to stand aside and wait for more confirmation.

Outlook for 27th April - 1st May 2015

AUDUSD

Monthly trend: DOWN

Weekly trend: DOWN
Daily momentum: NEUTRAL

Short term rally on the daily chart is pushing price closer to 0.7890 resistance. RBA interest rate decision in 2 weeks could be the deciding factor for traders looking to take advantage of a low risk high reward short trade. I am also looking for opportunities to short at resistance for the very same reason.

AUDNZD

Monthly trend: DOWN
Weekly trend: DOWN
Daily momentum: NEUTRAL

On daily chart this pair is testing both 1.0320 horizontal resistance and down trend resistance. I will be watching closely on smaller time frames to sell if there is confirmation of selling from price action.

EURUSD

Monthly trend: DOWN
Weekly trend: DOWN
Daily momentum: NEUTRAL

I'm waiting to see if this short term rally bring price to 1.1060 resistance for chances to go short but for now there's no trading opportunity here.

EURNZD

Monthly trend: DOWN
Weekly trend: DOWN
Daily momentum: UP

The remainder 40% of my short position from last week was closed out at 1.3914 for +329 pips. Looking back now it seems like a brilliant decision but the truth is that I didn't intend to exit here. When I originally entered the trade, I randomly put in 330 pips for target profit and then set my 1st target using a limit order. The plan was that after TP1 was hit, stop would be trailed to follow price down and the original target would be moved out even further. Well, I forgot to move it and so it was hit. I consider myself very lucky because my trading partner who took the exact same trade was stopped out when price rallied quickly because he was actually following the trading plan better than I did.

Trade summary:

TP1: +93 pips, closed out 60% for 0.85 RR
TP2: +329 pips, closed out 40% for 3.00 RR

Final RR for the entire trade is 1.71 which I am very happy with given that it was due to luck that I got out with massive profits on the last 40% of my position.




GBPUSD

Monthly trend: DOWN
Weekly trend: DOWN
Daily momentum: UP

Last week I talked about a short trade on daily chart with entry at 1.4905 . The trade was triggered on Monday and I was stopped out on Wednesday. Nothing much to discuss here because the trade was executed exactly as planned. I was simple wrong on my theory that price would reverse if it breaks below 1.4905 .

This pair is showing a strong rally in the short term. What do I do when I see a clear trend? I find low risk high reward opportunities to get on board. I can see minor resistance at 1.5230 and next level up is 1.5500 . I am looking to go long if price retraces back down to support zone at 1.4975 - 1.5000 area.

GBPJPY

Monthly trend: UP
Weekly trend: DOWN
Daily momentum: UP

This pair is approaching trend line resistance on the weekly chart. I will wait for 1 more week to see how this potential short setup unfolds.

USDJPY

Monthly trend: NEUTRAL
Weekly trend: NEUTRAL
Daily momentum: NEUTRAL

Price has been going sideways since February, trapped between 121.60 resistance and 118.50 support. I am looking for opportunities to go long on the smaller time frames if price gets to 118.50 - 118.80 support zone.

Outlook for 20th - 25th April 2015

AUDUSD

Monthly trend: DOWN
Weekly trend: DOWN
Daily momentum: NEUTRAL

Support at 0.7580 has help up for the 3rd time in 4 weeks, indicating that buyers are willing to step in at that level. Price has broken through 0.7750 minor resistance. I will be looking to short if price action shows signs of strong selling at 0.7890 resistance.

EURAUD

Monthly trend: NEUTRAL

Weekly trend: DOWN
Daily momentum: DOWN

On 4 hour chart there has been strong buying at 1.3800 but it was too high above my support zone at 1.3730 so risk was not justified for me. Price tested this support zone again on Thursday and it held up once more. Price has finished the week on 4 hour resistance level 1.3870 and it is also just above the 4 hour downtrend resistance so I am looking for opportunities to short on the smaller time frames.

EURJPY

Monthly trend: NEUTRAL

Weekly trend: DOWN
Daily momentum: DOWN

Weekly support 1.2690 has seen buyers coming in to push price up. I was watching price action on 1 hour time frames and above but I could not see any opportunity to go long with. On daily chart there was a signal that price could reverse with the formation of the bullish indecision candle on Tuesday, however, the following candle did not make a higher high hence the setup was no longer valid. Right now there's nothing to do with this pair but to watch until it either breaks support or tests resistance for opportunities to short with the weekly trend.

EURNZD

Monthly trend: DOWN

Weekly trend: DOWN
Daily momentum: DOWN

To continue from last week, this pair retraced to 1.4240 resistance and I spotted an opportunity to go short on 4 hour chart. Since this pair has never been trading in this price range, I had taken a safer risk management profile for the trade. You can see it in the way I take 1st profit.

Entry @ 1.4243

Stop @ 1.4353 (-110 pips), moved to 1.4160

TP1 @ 1.4050 (+93 pips), exited 60% for 0.85 RR

Stop will be trailed appropriately to follow price down if that is the case.

EURUSD

Monthly trend: DOWN

Weekly trend: DOWN
Daily momentum: NEUTRAL

This pair had a reversal on daily chart this week starting with indecision on Monday. I did not take the trade because the indecision candle formed too high above my support area therefore it did not fit my trading plan. This is the ugly truth about forex trading. My trading plan has kept me out of profitable trades as well as bad trades. However, overall it has saved me more on potential losses than just about any other tools at my disposal. Right now I am looking for a retest of 1.1060 resistance for opportunities to go short.

GBPAUD

Monthly trend: UP

Weekly trend: UP

Daily momentum: DOWN

On daily chart, this pair is making higher lows but lower highs which indicates to me that the daily uptrend has come to an end. It closed the week right on 1.9220 resistance. Price is being squeezed into a narrow tunnel and with the UK general election in May, I see more potential for downside than upside.

GBPUSD

Monthly trend: DOWN

Weekly trend: DOWN
Daily momentum: UP

Last week I said I was looking for a retest of 1.4690 resistance on intraday time frames and that was the case. On 4 hour chart I found a chance to go short after seeing a strong bearish candle following the retest.

Entry @ 1.4663

Stop @ 1.4693 (-30 pips) stopped out

TP1 @ 1.4603 (+60 pips)

TP2 @ 1.4573 (+90 pips)

Price hit my TP1 but due to spreads the buy price didn't reach 1.4603 and then price shot up to stop me out. Such is trading. 

However, a potential short trade is on offer on daily chart.

Entry @ 1.4905

Stop @ 1.5055 (-150 pips)

TP1 @ 1.4705 (+200 pips)

GBPJPY

Monthly trend: UP

Weekly trend: DOWN
Daily momentum: DOWN

The symmetrical triangles pattern on the weekly chart has been invalidated because price went lower than 175.49

USDCAD

Monthly trend: UP

Weekly trend: NEUTRAL
Daily momentum: DOWN

The 1.2420 support on daily chart has been broken. This could be a start to a downtrend.

NZDUSD

Monthly trend: DOWN

Weekly trend: DOWN
Daily momentum: UP

There is a setup for a potential short trade on daily chart. However, I see it as risky because price has closed above resistance by 30 pips. I will wait and see how the Monday's candle turn out. If there is sign of strong selling then I would consider entering short.