Weekly Forex outlook 18 September 2016

My blog entry last Sunday produced 3 trades on the Growth account during the week: 2 losses and 1 win. In typical fashion, I started the week with 2 losses in a row before getting a winner with GBPAUD on Friday. However, that 1 winner is twice as large as the 2 losers combined. This is my reward for grinding it out trade after trade, doing the exact same thing, taking losses without losing trust in my ability. It's not easy to take a trade when you just had 6 losses in a row. Discipline and a high tolerance for pain are essential for trading success.

These are potential trading opportunities that I am monitoring for next week:

AUDJPY - Support at 76.30 has been tested a few times last week and it appears to be holding. However, according to my analysis, price action is not showing any sign of strong buying power.Therefore I will be watching for an opportunity to short if resistance breaks.

AUDNZD - I shorted this pair last week when resistance wast tested. The trade was closed out for -0.56R loss when my exit signal came up. Price finished the week just below resistance therefore once again I will be looking for signs of strong selling pressure to enter short.

EURAUD - After breaking above 1.4890 resistance earlier in the week, price has pulled back to this level again. This can potentially setup a continuation trade for me. I will be watching price at support to find low risk high reward opportunities to enter long.

EURJPY - This pair mostly been ranging in the last 2 weeks. Support at 114.00 has been holding up well so far. For next week, I am looking for opportunities to go long if support holds and buyers are strong. Alternatively, if support breaks then I will be looking for shorts. I trade whichever direction is price action is showing a higher probability according to my strategy.

USDCAD - Resistance at 1.3250 is finally coming into play. This is a significant resistance level in my analysis. Just like the GBPAUD from last week, I prefer to trade only from these support resistance levels because they offer many advantages to suit my risk management techniques. If resistance holds then I will be looking at multiple time frames for signs of strong selling power to enter short.

Weekly Forex outlook 10 September 2016

This week has been yet another week of patiently waiting for the right setup to trade. I was so close to being in a trade but the market did not agree with my analysis. I had a buy limit  to go long USDCAD on daily chart after 1.2830 support was tested on Tuesday and price action showed signs of strong buying power on Wednesday. My entry price was at 1.2846 but unfortunately price got to within 5 pips and then buyers stepped in.

This is a screenshot of the setup when my order was placed:

This is what it is now. Price has already hit the TP that I planned for. This is the reality of trading.Trading is about following a plan while realising that the plan sometimes will not get you in on profitable trades. The plan is not going to work each and every time.

For next week, I am looking at the following currency pair for potential trading opportunities (all charts are on daily time frame):

AUDUSD - Buyers were very strong at 0.7500 support level just 2 weeks ago. If price continues to drop to this level then I will be looking for opportunities to go long.

EURAUD - Friday's candle closed just above 1.4890 resistance. This level was tested recent and proved to be the point where sellers eventually took control after a long period of indecision. Since there is a daily close above resistance (even by just 6 pips), I am only looking on the daily chart for signs of indecision and possible reversal. As a systematic trader, my trading plan is black and white.

GBPAUD - Last week I talked about this pair getting close to 1.7760 resistance and this week it is still the same. This is a significant level according to my analysis. I will look to short if resistance holds and there are signs of strong seller pressure. Alternatively, if buyers were able to break through then I am going to look for a pullback to enter long (if it happens).

NZDUSD - Resistance level 0.7320 was broken on Tuesday and now there is a pullback to the same level. This time it could be acting as support. This is a typical continuation pattern that I trade. First I want to see confirmation of 0.7320 acting as support. Then I will be looking at price action on multiple time frames to find the pattern that I know how to trade.

Weekly Forex outlook 5 September 2016

There are 3 currency pairs that I am watching from today for trading opportunities:

AUDNZD - Price is close to 1.0310 support level which is also the low of this year so far. If there is sign of transition from sellers to buyers above support then I will be looking for opportunities to enter long.

GBPAUD - This pair has been on a steady uptrend for the last 3 weeks and now it is approaching 1.7760 resistance. If I can see signs of strong selling power when price hits this level then I will be looking to go short.

GBPUSD - Resistance at 1.3410 is a key level that I am interested in. On daily chart, price has not been able to close above this level since Brexit. Similar to GBPAUD above, I am looking for opportunities to short below resistance if I can see price action evidence that meets my trading criteria.

August 2016 performance summary

Here are my performances for August 2016. Account statements and performance summary pages have been updated.

-0.81% on Trend Following account
-0.68% on PAMM Growth account

This month has been a personal challenge because I moved back from England to Australia. Nevertheless, I did not miss out on any trade setups. The capital risk per trade on the PAMM account has been increased therefore I am expecting a larger draw down period ahead if I run into a losing streak. There were only 2 trades taken for the month of August.

The Trend Following account posted a small loss for August. It is currently holding onto a lot of winners (11 out of 12 trades are currently in profits). If the trend continues then it is going to have good results for September.

The new day trading system has been trading live for 2 weeks. We (myself and other members of my team) had a vote on the idea of showing the account but at this stage the decision is a no. As a member, I must respect the decision of the majority. This system will be trading live against Charlie Burton at the London Forex Show on 24 February 2017. If you are attending then you will get to see it live in action!