Weekly Forex outlook 16 November 2015

Hi everyone,



I am not trading this week and will be on leave for 2 weeks. However, old habits die hard. I'm used to doing my weekly analysis anyway. Here's an unscripted video showing you my analysis for this week. Take care and I will see you when I return.

Weekly Forex outlook 8 November 2015

In this video, I discussed 2 of my trades on AUDUSD and GPBAUD as well as my view on possible trading opportunities on AUDNZD, GBPJPY, GBPUSD and USDCAD.

Weekly Forex outlook 1 November 2015

Hi everyone,

I’ve been unwell for the last few days and unable to do the weekly video. It's now Monday evening and I'm not going to get better so here’s the script for the video that I intended to do:

AUDJPY daily chart– 86.40 support level has been tested many times in the last few weeks and was broken on Wednesday when a daily candle closed below it. I am watching for a retest of this level for opportunities to short while keeping in mind that I must wait after Tuesday to trade because of interest rate decision for AUD.

AUDNZD daily chart – My short from 2 weeks ago hit its target on Friday for +180 pips or +1.8R gain. I have support at 1.0500 which price got to on Friday. I favour a long trade at support if price action shows signs of strong buying. A daily close below this level would have me a short trade instead, with target at 1.0350 support.

AUDUSD daily chart  – This pair is showing conflicting signals for me. On one hand, price has broken 0.7220 support and sellers were strong towards the end of the week. On the other hand, I see a pattern of higher high and possibly higher low if price does not reach 0.7000 . I am going to stand aside for now until Wednesday and review this pair again. The ideal scenario that I would want to be trading is price comes up to 0.7720 resistance and I see strong signs of sellers in control.

GBPAUD daily chart – Price closed well above 2.1420 resistance on Thursday so this level has now turn into support for me. I will look to buy on a pullback to support if price action shows signs of strong buying power. Again, interest rate decision for Australia on Tuesday is the event that I will wait out before entering trades.

USDCAD daily chart – This pair finished the week right on top of my support level at 1.3050 so I will be looking to go long from here. Monday’s candle is not enough for me to enter the trade. I want to see strong buying power from Monday and Tuesday before considering options to go long.

USDJPY daily chart – The market showed typical reactionary behaviour after FOMC and price action has been very messy towards the end of last week. Support at 120.40 is still in play so I will wait for Monday’s candle to close before deciding if there is an opportunity to go long at support or not.

Last pair on the list is NZDJPY. There was a potential long trade at 80.70 support after Thursday’s daily candle closed as indecision. However the setup did not meet all of my entry criteria so it was not taken. Friday’s candle showed that buyers were very strong so perhaps another missed opportunities but my trading rules are meant to keep me safe and the price I pay for that is reduced potential profits.

The most important event on the calendar next week for me to avoid is interest rate decision for Australia on early Tuesday morning. As I have got quite a few AUD pairs on my watchlist, I am going to wait for Tuesday to pass before considering any trade. Thursday has interest rate decision for the UK and Friday is non-farm payroll which is the star of the show. It's shaping up to be a volatile week to kick off November.