Outlook for 27th April - 1st May 2015

AUDUSD

Monthly trend: DOWN

Weekly trend: DOWN
Daily momentum: NEUTRAL

Short term rally on the daily chart is pushing price closer to 0.7890 resistance. RBA interest rate decision in 2 weeks could be the deciding factor for traders looking to take advantage of a low risk high reward short trade. I am also looking for opportunities to short at resistance for the very same reason.

AUDNZD

Monthly trend: DOWN
Weekly trend: DOWN
Daily momentum: NEUTRAL

On daily chart this pair is testing both 1.0320 horizontal resistance and down trend resistance. I will be watching closely on smaller time frames to sell if there is confirmation of selling from price action.

EURUSD

Monthly trend: DOWN
Weekly trend: DOWN
Daily momentum: NEUTRAL

I'm waiting to see if this short term rally bring price to 1.1060 resistance for chances to go short but for now there's no trading opportunity here.

EURNZD

Monthly trend: DOWN
Weekly trend: DOWN
Daily momentum: UP

The remainder 40% of my short position from last week was closed out at 1.3914 for +329 pips. Looking back now it seems like a brilliant decision but the truth is that I didn't intend to exit here. When I originally entered the trade, I randomly put in 330 pips for target profit and then set my 1st target using a limit order. The plan was that after TP1 was hit, stop would be trailed to follow price down and the original target would be moved out even further. Well, I forgot to move it and so it was hit. I consider myself very lucky because my trading partner who took the exact same trade was stopped out when price rallied quickly because he was actually following the trading plan better than I did.

Trade summary:

TP1: +93 pips, closed out 60% for 0.85 RR
TP2: +329 pips, closed out 40% for 3.00 RR

Final RR for the entire trade is 1.71 which I am very happy with given that it was due to luck that I got out with massive profits on the last 40% of my position.




GBPUSD

Monthly trend: DOWN
Weekly trend: DOWN
Daily momentum: UP

Last week I talked about a short trade on daily chart with entry at 1.4905 . The trade was triggered on Monday and I was stopped out on Wednesday. Nothing much to discuss here because the trade was executed exactly as planned. I was simple wrong on my theory that price would reverse if it breaks below 1.4905 .

This pair is showing a strong rally in the short term. What do I do when I see a clear trend? I find low risk high reward opportunities to get on board. I can see minor resistance at 1.5230 and next level up is 1.5500 . I am looking to go long if price retraces back down to support zone at 1.4975 - 1.5000 area.

GBPJPY

Monthly trend: UP
Weekly trend: DOWN
Daily momentum: UP

This pair is approaching trend line resistance on the weekly chart. I will wait for 1 more week to see how this potential short setup unfolds.

USDJPY

Monthly trend: NEUTRAL
Weekly trend: NEUTRAL
Daily momentum: NEUTRAL

Price has been going sideways since February, trapped between 121.60 resistance and 118.50 support. I am looking for opportunities to go long on the smaller time frames if price gets to 118.50 - 118.80 support zone.

Outlook for 20th - 25th April 2015

AUDUSD

Monthly trend: DOWN
Weekly trend: DOWN
Daily momentum: NEUTRAL

Support at 0.7580 has help up for the 3rd time in 4 weeks, indicating that buyers are willing to step in at that level. Price has broken through 0.7750 minor resistance. I will be looking to short if price action shows signs of strong selling at 0.7890 resistance.

EURAUD

Monthly trend: NEUTRAL

Weekly trend: DOWN
Daily momentum: DOWN

On 4 hour chart there has been strong buying at 1.3800 but it was too high above my support zone at 1.3730 so risk was not justified for me. Price tested this support zone again on Thursday and it held up once more. Price has finished the week on 4 hour resistance level 1.3870 and it is also just above the 4 hour downtrend resistance so I am looking for opportunities to short on the smaller time frames.

EURJPY

Monthly trend: NEUTRAL

Weekly trend: DOWN
Daily momentum: DOWN

Weekly support 1.2690 has seen buyers coming in to push price up. I was watching price action on 1 hour time frames and above but I could not see any opportunity to go long with. On daily chart there was a signal that price could reverse with the formation of the bullish indecision candle on Tuesday, however, the following candle did not make a higher high hence the setup was no longer valid. Right now there's nothing to do with this pair but to watch until it either breaks support or tests resistance for opportunities to short with the weekly trend.

EURNZD

Monthly trend: DOWN

Weekly trend: DOWN
Daily momentum: DOWN

To continue from last week, this pair retraced to 1.4240 resistance and I spotted an opportunity to go short on 4 hour chart. Since this pair has never been trading in this price range, I had taken a safer risk management profile for the trade. You can see it in the way I take 1st profit.

Entry @ 1.4243

Stop @ 1.4353 (-110 pips), moved to 1.4160

TP1 @ 1.4050 (+93 pips), exited 60% for 0.85 RR

Stop will be trailed appropriately to follow price down if that is the case.

EURUSD

Monthly trend: DOWN

Weekly trend: DOWN
Daily momentum: NEUTRAL

This pair had a reversal on daily chart this week starting with indecision on Monday. I did not take the trade because the indecision candle formed too high above my support area therefore it did not fit my trading plan. This is the ugly truth about forex trading. My trading plan has kept me out of profitable trades as well as bad trades. However, overall it has saved me more on potential losses than just about any other tools at my disposal. Right now I am looking for a retest of 1.1060 resistance for opportunities to go short.

GBPAUD

Monthly trend: UP

Weekly trend: UP

Daily momentum: DOWN

On daily chart, this pair is making higher lows but lower highs which indicates to me that the daily uptrend has come to an end. It closed the week right on 1.9220 resistance. Price is being squeezed into a narrow tunnel and with the UK general election in May, I see more potential for downside than upside.

GBPUSD

Monthly trend: DOWN

Weekly trend: DOWN
Daily momentum: UP

Last week I said I was looking for a retest of 1.4690 resistance on intraday time frames and that was the case. On 4 hour chart I found a chance to go short after seeing a strong bearish candle following the retest.

Entry @ 1.4663

Stop @ 1.4693 (-30 pips) stopped out

TP1 @ 1.4603 (+60 pips)

TP2 @ 1.4573 (+90 pips)

Price hit my TP1 but due to spreads the buy price didn't reach 1.4603 and then price shot up to stop me out. Such is trading. 

However, a potential short trade is on offer on daily chart.

Entry @ 1.4905

Stop @ 1.5055 (-150 pips)

TP1 @ 1.4705 (+200 pips)

GBPJPY

Monthly trend: UP

Weekly trend: DOWN
Daily momentum: DOWN

The symmetrical triangles pattern on the weekly chart has been invalidated because price went lower than 175.49

USDCAD

Monthly trend: UP

Weekly trend: NEUTRAL
Daily momentum: DOWN

The 1.2420 support on daily chart has been broken. This could be a start to a downtrend.

NZDUSD

Monthly trend: DOWN

Weekly trend: DOWN
Daily momentum: UP

There is a setup for a potential short trade on daily chart. However, I see it as risky because price has closed above resistance by 30 pips. I will wait and see how the Monday's candle turn out. If there is sign of strong selling then I would consider entering short.

Outlook for 13th - 17th April 2015

AUDUSD

Monthly trend: DOWN
Weekly trend: DOWN
Daily momentum: NEUTRAL

Price action has been messy this week. So far there's nothing worthy to take note of. I am still looking for a daily close below 0.7530 as indication that support has been broken. Alternatively, if price rallies up to resistance at 0.7890 then I will be look for opportunities to short again.


EURAUD

Monthly trend: NEUTRAL
Weekly trend: DOWN
Daily momentum: DOWN

Last week I talked about this pair testing both horizontal and trend line resistance on the weekly chart. This week a very good short trade formed on daily chart starting with decision on Monday followed by 4 days of strong selling. Unfortunately due to travel schedule, I was not able to check my charts at the close of Monday's candle. so I did not see this forming. After the move, I dropped down to as low as 1 hour to look for a possible entry but there was nothing that fit my risk tolerance. Now I am going to observe how price behaves as it hits 1.3730 support.

EURJPY

Monthly trend: NEUTRAL
Weekly trend: DOWN
Daily momentum: DOWN

This pair has been ranging between 130.90  resistance and 126.90 support for a few weeks and now daily momentum is indicating that price will test 126.90 support once again. Since this support level is also present on the weekly time frame, I am expecting that it would put up a fight. I am going to watch on the smaller time frames to see if price action would produce a reversal off this support level.

EURNZD

Monthly trend: DOWN
Weekly trend: DOWN
Daily momentum: DOWN

Daily momentum has now lined up with the larger trends therefore I am going to look for shorts on this pair. Specifically, I am looking for a retracement where price goes up to test 1.4270 resistance. I will be watching this pair on 4 hour and daily time frames.

EURUSD

Monthly trend: DOWN
Weekly trend: DOWN
Daily momentum: DOWN

There was a possible short trade on 12 hour chart Monday morning when price hit 1.1050 resistance. This week has seen strong selling and price has broken the short term uptrend and likely to test recent support at 1.0480 area again. A daily close below this would indicate another down move.

GBPAUD

Monthly trend: UP
Weekly trend: UP
Daily momentum: DOWN

Price has broken below daily support 1.9220 and is about to test weekly trend line support. GBP weakness leading to the UK general election in May could result in messy price action particularly when combined with weak AUD fundamentals. I expect a situation where both currencies are experiencing weakness to be messy and difficult to trade.

GBPUSD

Monthly trend: DOWN
Weekly trend: DOWN
Daily momentum: DOWN

Price has closed below 1.4690 support and now daily momentum is pointing down as well. This is my preferred scenario for short trades. UK general election could be another catalyst for further weakness in GBP. I am looking for a retracement on smaller time frames if price does retest 1.4690 resistance again.

GBPJPY

Monthly trend: UP
Weekly trend: NEUTRAL
Daily momentum: DOWN

The symmetrical pattern on the weekly chart is still valid but only just. If price breaks below 175.49 then the pattern would be invalided.