Outlook for 20th - 25th April 2015

AUDUSD

Monthly trend: DOWN
Weekly trend: DOWN
Daily momentum: NEUTRAL

Support at 0.7580 has help up for the 3rd time in 4 weeks, indicating that buyers are willing to step in at that level. Price has broken through 0.7750 minor resistance. I will be looking to short if price action shows signs of strong selling at 0.7890 resistance.

EURAUD

Monthly trend: NEUTRAL

Weekly trend: DOWN
Daily momentum: DOWN

On 4 hour chart there has been strong buying at 1.3800 but it was too high above my support zone at 1.3730 so risk was not justified for me. Price tested this support zone again on Thursday and it held up once more. Price has finished the week on 4 hour resistance level 1.3870 and it is also just above the 4 hour downtrend resistance so I am looking for opportunities to short on the smaller time frames.

EURJPY

Monthly trend: NEUTRAL

Weekly trend: DOWN
Daily momentum: DOWN

Weekly support 1.2690 has seen buyers coming in to push price up. I was watching price action on 1 hour time frames and above but I could not see any opportunity to go long with. On daily chart there was a signal that price could reverse with the formation of the bullish indecision candle on Tuesday, however, the following candle did not make a higher high hence the setup was no longer valid. Right now there's nothing to do with this pair but to watch until it either breaks support or tests resistance for opportunities to short with the weekly trend.

EURNZD

Monthly trend: DOWN

Weekly trend: DOWN
Daily momentum: DOWN

To continue from last week, this pair retraced to 1.4240 resistance and I spotted an opportunity to go short on 4 hour chart. Since this pair has never been trading in this price range, I had taken a safer risk management profile for the trade. You can see it in the way I take 1st profit.

Entry @ 1.4243

Stop @ 1.4353 (-110 pips), moved to 1.4160

TP1 @ 1.4050 (+93 pips), exited 60% for 0.85 RR

Stop will be trailed appropriately to follow price down if that is the case.

EURUSD

Monthly trend: DOWN

Weekly trend: DOWN
Daily momentum: NEUTRAL

This pair had a reversal on daily chart this week starting with indecision on Monday. I did not take the trade because the indecision candle formed too high above my support area therefore it did not fit my trading plan. This is the ugly truth about forex trading. My trading plan has kept me out of profitable trades as well as bad trades. However, overall it has saved me more on potential losses than just about any other tools at my disposal. Right now I am looking for a retest of 1.1060 resistance for opportunities to go short.

GBPAUD

Monthly trend: UP

Weekly trend: UP

Daily momentum: DOWN

On daily chart, this pair is making higher lows but lower highs which indicates to me that the daily uptrend has come to an end. It closed the week right on 1.9220 resistance. Price is being squeezed into a narrow tunnel and with the UK general election in May, I see more potential for downside than upside.

GBPUSD

Monthly trend: DOWN

Weekly trend: DOWN
Daily momentum: UP

Last week I said I was looking for a retest of 1.4690 resistance on intraday time frames and that was the case. On 4 hour chart I found a chance to go short after seeing a strong bearish candle following the retest.

Entry @ 1.4663

Stop @ 1.4693 (-30 pips) stopped out

TP1 @ 1.4603 (+60 pips)

TP2 @ 1.4573 (+90 pips)

Price hit my TP1 but due to spreads the buy price didn't reach 1.4603 and then price shot up to stop me out. Such is trading. 

However, a potential short trade is on offer on daily chart.

Entry @ 1.4905

Stop @ 1.5055 (-150 pips)

TP1 @ 1.4705 (+200 pips)

GBPJPY

Monthly trend: UP

Weekly trend: DOWN
Daily momentum: DOWN

The symmetrical triangles pattern on the weekly chart has been invalidated because price went lower than 175.49

USDCAD

Monthly trend: UP

Weekly trend: NEUTRAL
Daily momentum: DOWN

The 1.2420 support on daily chart has been broken. This could be a start to a downtrend.

NZDUSD

Monthly trend: DOWN

Weekly trend: DOWN
Daily momentum: UP

There is a setup for a potential short trade on daily chart. However, I see it as risky because price has closed above resistance by 30 pips. I will wait and see how the Monday's candle turn out. If there is sign of strong selling then I would consider entering short.