Fundamental Analysis:
From next month, I will be doing a separate fundamental analysis report in the first week of each month. This is because the fundamentals rarely change from one week to another. Therefore, I think that once is a month is sufficient to keep to update with the fundamentals while allowing me more time to include more technical analysis on more currency pairs on a weekly basis.
News summary:
From next month, I will be doing a separate fundamental analysis report in the first week of each month. This is because the fundamentals rarely change from one week to another. Therefore, I think that once is a month is sufficient to keep to update with the fundamentals while allowing me more time to include more technical analysis on more currency pairs on a weekly basis.
News summary:
AUD – RBA meeting minutes suggest another rate cut for this year although timing will be up to market conditions
GBP – 0.1% dropped in unemployment rate and slight fall in unemployment claim
EUR – Greece received a 4 months extension in its debt repayment after talks broke down early in the week
Upcoming news:
EUR – Mario Draghi speaks in front of European Parliament (Wednesday)
USD – Fed Chair Janet Yellen testify on monetary policy report (Wednesday)
AUDUSD
Technical:
From last week, I mentioned a pattern of a double bottom and higher high during the ranging phase before continuation of the down trend. So far this week price has been ranging again but it has closed the week above 0.7840 for the first time in 3 weeks. The case is still on for price to retest the high 0.7875 made on 6/2/2015 and if so it would be the higher high to complete this pattern.
EURUSD
EURUSD
Technical:
Price has been ranging for much of the week with some intraday volatility as market reacts and overreacts to the news that talks had broken down on Tuesday. Now that a definite outcome has been reached (4 months extension as mentioned above) it should make a move in the next week or two. Right now I am unsure what this pair is trying to do. I will be looking for shorts if price tests 1.1500 resistance.
GBPAUD
Price has been ranging for much of the week with some intraday volatility as market reacts and overreacts to the news that talks had broken down on Tuesday. Now that a definite outcome has been reached (4 months extension as mentioned above) it should make a move in the next week or two. Right now I am unsure what this pair is trying to do. I will be looking for shorts if price tests 1.1500 resistance.
GBPAUD
Technical:
Last week I mentioned that I will be looking for a retracement at around 1.9720 to go long on 4hr chart. Well, price retraced much lower than I had expected. It went as low as 1.9600 before heading up when the unemployment figure was released. My trade was taken on 1 hour chart when I see evidence of consolidation above support level 1.9620 . Price tested this support level again on Friday and finished the week with a possible long setup on 4 hour.
Long on 17/2/2015
Entry @ 1.9640
Stop @ 1.9600 (-40)
TP @ 1.9790 (+150) achieved, final RR is 3.75
Last week I mentioned that I will be looking for a retracement at around 1.9720 to go long on 4hr chart. Well, price retraced much lower than I had expected. It went as low as 1.9600 before heading up when the unemployment figure was released. My trade was taken on 1 hour chart when I see evidence of consolidation above support level 1.9620 . Price tested this support level again on Friday and finished the week with a possible long setup on 4 hour.
Long on 17/2/2015
Entry @ 1.9640
Stop @ 1.9600 (-40)
TP @ 1.9790 (+150) achieved, final RR is 3.75
USDCAD
Technical:
I noticed that this pair is showing a symmetrical triangle which is a continuation pattern. A break about 1.2600 could signal the next push up to 1.3000 where weekly resistance lies.
I noticed that this pair is showing a symmetrical triangle which is a continuation pattern. A break about 1.2600 could signal the next push up to 1.3000 where weekly resistance lies.
GBPUSD
Technical:
The short term rally continues and now price is within 100 pips of resistance at 1.5500 . Breaking this resistance will be important for this pair as it signals the end of a very strong bearish trend. Alternatively, resistance could hold and provide excellent opportunities to short again with great risk reward. Fundamentals are still bearish therefore if given the choice I would favour shorts over longs.
The short term rally continues and now price is within 100 pips of resistance at 1.5500 . Breaking this resistance will be important for this pair as it signals the end of a very strong bearish trend. Alternatively, resistance could hold and provide excellent opportunities to short again with great risk reward. Fundamentals are still bearish therefore if given the choice I would favour shorts over longs.
EURJPY
Technical:
Price has consolidated right on weekly resistance 135.00 . I had recently learnt about Elliot Wave Theory and it appears that this pair has just completed a 5-wave pattern. Right now it is clear that a short term rally is happening. I will be watching to see if it breaks the top of wave 4 at 137.60 as that could be the start of a long term uptrend.
Price has consolidated right on weekly resistance 135.00 . I had recently learnt about Elliot Wave Theory and it appears that this pair has just completed a 5-wave pattern. Right now it is clear that a short term rally is happening. I will be watching to see if it breaks the top of wave 4 at 137.60 as that could be the start of a long term uptrend.
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