Outlook for 9th - 13th March 2015

Technical Analysis

AUDUSD

Following better than forecasted NFP on Friday, this pair has broken below 0.7740 support which have been holding up for 5 weeks. I am now looking to see if price would retest this support-turned-resistance level as it could give opportunities to enter short. Next support level down is at 0.7650 which gives a potential +90 pips target. Therefore I am looking to have a stop of less than 50 pips to achieve good risk reward.

EURUSD

Last week I said that I am looking for a daily close below 1.1096 as a sign that the bearish move would continue. This happened on Thursday this week so I entered short on the open of Friday's daily candle. Stop was aggressively placed at the top of the Thursday candle. I say it was aggressive because volatility from NFP could have taken me out. Luckily that was not the case.

Entry @ 1.1024

Stop @ 1.1120 (-96 pips)

TP1 @ 1.0870 (+154 pips) exited 80% for RR of 1.6

Stop will now be trailed to hopefully continue riding the downtrend.

GBPAUD

This pair has broken below 1.9620 support as suggested in last week's outlook report. The retraced occurred on 5/3/2015 and I entered short on 1 hour chart after seeing strong signs of selling when price hit resistance.

Entry @ 1.9590

Stop @ 1.9630 (-40 pips) moved to breakeven

TP1 @ 1.9470 (+120 pips) exited 80% for RR of 3:1

TP2 @ 1.9350 (+240 pips)

I didn't have TP2 at the time of entry but now I have put it at the next support level on 4 hour chart at 1.9350 . This was almost hit when NFP came out.

GBPUSD

This pair has dropped 320 pips this week. It happened too fast for me to find a good entry to short. On the 4 hour chart, there was no retest of any support resistance level. Price is almost at the 1.5000 support level. If it managed to retrace 200 pips up towards the 1.5220 resistance then I would be looking on intraday time frames for short opportunities.

GBPJPY

On daily chart, this pair is testing dual support, horizontal support at 181.00 and the short term down trend (green line). Here I am looking for opportunities to go long in line with the weekly trend.

AUDNZD

This pair has been trending down on daily chart since November 2014. Right now price is looking to test resistance at 1.0530 which happens to be where resistance for the down trend would be. I am looking for opportunities to short. Ideally, I want to take it when the two resistance lines meet.

USDCAD

I've been following this pair for 6 weeks now waiting for confirmation of a breakout from the symmetrical triangles pattern. NFP did that on Friday. There are 2 scenarios that I am looking to enter long:

Scenario A - price retests the symmetrical triangles top line which should now be acting like support.

Scenario B - price breaks above horizontal resistance at 1.2640 and comes back to retest it.